DJIMstocks.com- DJ Interactive Markets

TWLL profiled September 10th on DJIM http://djmarkets.squarespace.com/journal/2006/9/10/twll-at-14-or-lower-on-pullback.html  .......put in another solid EPS. That's right...re-visit, recycle DJIM EPS stocks. We added as it showed strength throughout the day and made a move on its all time highs late in the day. The record volume, excellent close bode well for further action. Last Q had 2 straight days of a move after EPS.(beginning of Aug.).

TWLL mid day

2pm chart just before move and DJIM buy in. Volume was 300K+, it doubled the last 2 hours!

*mentioned premarket, late in the day at Market chat

...and up nicely to boot...between Journal and Market chat from yesterday ...ATNI, SYNL, MR, APKT.  Being selective means going with 'fresh' strength.

As much as we hate to say it, this is the exact sort of action we are looking for.    As you  recall from our note yesterday, we cut lose quite a bit and are mostly cash.     Yesterday's late day rebound was a bit puzzling but we stuck with our thesis.     We just didn't like how many of the stocks on our screen are acting lately, looked very tiring with declining volume.  

Where do we go from here?     We'd be patient as we think this pullback is very healthy in the overall scheme but we still do not want to be dancing around in this pullback.     Picks will be extremely selective until this pullback is over and trading horizon will definitely be centered around very short time frame.      The problem with this kind of pullback is that we just don't know how damaging it's going to be to small caps.    When bids disappear, some of these small caps can literally drop in a vacuum like of way.    9 ema is meaningless when the mkt is going through a general sell off.     When the mkt is on a firm uptrend, we'd put more weighting into the 9 ema bounce idea.    Right now, all we can do is sit on the side line and keep an eye on what's making a new 52 week high

A couple of stocks do stand out today..     MR and APKT.    In all honesty, we think plays nowadays are only as good as until the end of the trading day.

Be careful out there and protect your capital at all cost.   There's no need to sit in a position that's still "appearing" to hold up.   In our experience, it's probably just a matter of time when the pullback gets to your stock, sooner or later.

cheers,

Okay.......simply we didn't like the way some recent DJ Journal stocks started to give up their early gains yesterday...AXR,ALB,IAAC..so we put on our bear costumes and hibernated by noon, but we really want to come out and look around for something new to chew on...here and there...  LMRA, affectionately known as the stinking LLAMA around here, just doesn't fill you up for more than a day or should it...we laughed the hype would come in premarket and did it ever.  This one belongs in and to the Deltas at Faber College, not Harvard.  

Well...this possible chew today is a quiet one, ATNI.  It was a favorite long ago, it has split and has appeared on the Nasdaq recently. It might be to our tastes after its Q report. Revenue 41.3 mln up 66%, net income 7.6 v 4.4m....53c vs. .36c(+47%).  ATNI (19.34 close) has been acquiring assets along the way but these numbers still beat all analysts expectations taking that into consideration. Same rules apply as always regarding going after things for breakfast, let the market show you if it likes it too.

We're bagging some of our candy, freeing up cash today for the next round of earnings. Todays action feels like some want to ruin the party for some tonight. Just being cautious at this point. Maybe we're just spooked by DGIT's breakout;)..

For those that have followed us for the last few years, we have written numerous times about how we just do not like the probability of holding through earning.    If this is year 1999, we'd probably be buying calls left and right in front of the earning.   This is 2006 and we think that trading environment has changed a lot since the hay days.    The conclusion is that it is almost rare these days that a stock gaps up after an earning report but frequently the stock gaps down on any slight disappointment out of a report.     Of course, we are using DIVX as an example to illustrate our point as there seems to be some confusion over the earning reaction tonight.

On Friday morning, we noted that DIVX was acting really well a day ahead of its earning report and we thought it could pull a RVBD.  What we meant by that was the fact RVBD rallied over two points right before its earning report.   We thought DIVX could pull a similar move given its connection with google.    Then the infamous Goldman call hits and basically the whole market got dragged down and particularly the tech sector.   So the "rally ahead of earning" play never materialized for us.   Fortunately the stock did perk up late today to provide us still a nice exit point ahead of the earning.     So what happened to the stock in AH?   We think it's obvious that the stock's earning did not meet expectation.    We will not get into the debate of what should be the expected growth number or how much this stock should be worth... etc.   The fact that the stock is down quite bit in AH gives us a pretty good reason to stay away, and to move on.   If this stock comes back and try to attack the old high down the road, we'd be there.   For now, there's plenty of other action that is keeping us busy.

UCTT, so we found out who that seller of the 1.8 million block is and stock rallied.   We are encouraged by its action and think it's just a matter of time before it goes much higher.

RIMM, ah ha, the GS call should not and is not affecting this blackberry monster.   This one is approaching to be a good winner here.

The "A" Team,  APLX, AMIE, ALB, AXR all exhibiting unusual strength today and in fact three of the four logged new high today.

GROW/IAAC, love it or hate it, these are two good stocks to trade and bias is on the long side.

We are almost done with October and we are very much looking forward to the the month of November.    There's historically some strong action in this month and we hope it's no different this time around.   Having said that, we are still going to be looking for the best of the best kind of earning setup and won't get carried away chasing any and every gap ups.

cheers,

How convenient that earth shattering news was!...The market with 2 strikes against it yesterday....GDP and TGIF having little effect on the market, and then conveniently and timely GS decides to rile up the market with a blackberry file from an analyst whooping it up on a Friday night in Taipei with 'old news'....Did this tech rally really miss the fact that Vista delay troubles and 8 million Sony crisp and toasty batteries might dampen 4th Q holiday orders/sales and that corporations would take their sweet time incorporating Vista into '07.  Is it breaking news that many would go for something else this holiday season instead of a new MOBO' system?  Well...with a sensitive market after GDP#, profit taking Friday and with the market needing a rest period, it didn't take much to get the profit taking ball rolling without giving much thought. Is this really anything the market didn't know about or expect? . We wonder who was buying the selling on the 'demand has fallen off quickly in October" headline?.  You also have to wonder about a market that takes 'YUCK' GDP so lightly, yet gets shaken on MOBO growth prospects/shipment declines for October.   The market looks like it wants go higher into the last quarter to us, the GDP short term reaction helped this idea....but of course we need a healthy pullback ...consolidation, maybe this is it. The charts below show the lines in the sand for a pullback and/or some more. The SP on the upper line, the recent break outs of the indecies, the possibility of the Dow transports getting closer to highs which could be the last straw if it breaks out for those thinking this market will implode in 2006. Our gig at DJIM is not to get into the scenarios, there is enough info and talking heads giving their take. We don't want get into this ever on DJIM and we wouldn't expect many to ever agree with us or would we care if they didn't... so we don't.  We are traders first and as we always say....we will trade accordingly to the action we see. Yesterday, it was taking some off as we thought the GDP was enough to cause a needed pullback, the late tech action told us to sell but there were a few pieces we were still buying late in the day..   There are a few techs in the DJIM bunch..

TRT saw the brunt of the GS note. In our notes, we have been cautious on the TRT action pointing to the recent move without volume and waiting for the insiders to stop the selling. We talked off wanting a pullback to add before an attempt at the highs. Fridays was a little extreme to add, we will wait to see if the insiders helped the cause.

We added some DIVX again on the late day dip, we still think there will be some action like in RVBD the day of earnings before the release.

UCTT seemed to have survived the GS note and even closed higher than the much talked about pricing of the 1.8 mln share exchange.  Not bad action considering this is a semi with a cloud over it from that large transaction for some.

APH was looking so sweet as it broke the highs and toyed in the $70's  Then it got taken down with the rest. As we've said before, we expect this one to be on DJIM for a while.

RIMM..DJIM's after hours pick up at $99+ on earnings day had a nice breakout this week. We noted to look for one at $114 early on. TD research gave it a glowing report with another tgt in mid $100's on Friday. Our goal is still the 25% gain which is DJIM's benchmark we strive for in our buys to join the wall on our DJ Journal Archives page.

MR had a terrific week after driving us nuts for about a month. Last friday, we focused on the MR move and what it might bring the following week. Seems the break out move caught on as we went from low 17's to 19's. At this point we would like it to pullback closer to 9ema for another move into it. The volume dropped off thur/fri and so did our position. We will keep watching this closely and hopefully catch another move up.

ACOR is just a marvel to watch, it has bored the momo traders yet they all wait and watch for a move(including us;). This is now a hold long term for many as it has churned here in the 17 range endlessly. Are 3 or 4 firms wrong with the $24-25 targets on ACOR, we don't think so and patiently wait for any news to spark it again.

BTJ, the possibility we spoke of Wednesday for a late momo run into IBD didn't play out. The positive of this is the stock is becoming more attractive off the pullback after stellar earnings again...cheap...We will move heavy into BTJ on such sector moves but this will only occur with a volume push, so far BTJ is not trading like the BTJ we know...the volume is not there but we still bought some into the close as it closed in on the 9ema(15.80) level. The August run we followed had BTJ reach 9ema on day 6 (including earnings day) and then it continued forward.... Friday was day 4 this time around.

Some of the best trading opportunities this past week was from the stocks mentioned in the Extended trading thread in Market Chat...FTK, ZIGO, CTCI and a few others on consecutive days.  We expect this to continue as the small caps begin to roll out their numbers. As the EPS small cap show and tell begins, we will still keep the charts refreshed for some DJIM stocks we have little or no shares of now. We don't expect these to test highs until EPS is out or some news propels them to break highs. This includes CETV, CPY.   On Thursday,  we said we dwindled BVX (DJIM since low 7's).. this follows DGIT (low 10's). BVX seems to be only for the chart players now, another play might be formed with those 3 last daily sticks, DJIM needs another catalyst to move back in. Both have been profitable DJIM plays but we see more exciting things coming up with a fresh earnings season. Like all DJIM listed stocks these will be watched for a possibe entry. IAAC,CTCM,GROW continue to provide nice intraday moves for traders.

We're sorry..bad joke....okay unto what's happening in real time, not when Gunsmoke was the deal on the tube;). DJIM real time starts bright and early as this joyous season of earnings only comes around once a year....Wait, it comes around 4 times a year and lasts quite the long time.  What it comes down to is ... EPS season is all year round with us...we play it, trade it, invest in it. We've given the lowdown many times on our trading principles and focus around this type of play.  On to the bright and early...this rush of earnings reports is something to chew on, sometimes its overwhelming at the front loaded season. What we will continue to with the help of fellow traders is try to give you what looks right to us for a trade, a play for that day.  Sometimes this is done on the first cup of coffee, so you better do your own research. We can help you recognize a potential earnings day trade, something we will watch and possiibly trade.  Today, the stars were ZIGO, KSWS, PCCC in premkt. ZIGO in the mid 14's, KSWS 33-34's, PCCC 9.90 at the open. Hopefully some DJIM readers jumped on one or two of these premarket or early on.  All made it to the top 10 percentage gainers during the day. Earlier this week, we tossed out BTJ, FTK premkt off earnings. Some names given might have earnings calls later, so the numbers that may look swell might be beaten to death by a stuttering CEO.  Sometimes there is a trade before, sometimes after the call. We prefer no call...We don't hold into earnings reports and we don't hold into earnings calls unless the guidance has been revealed to the masses and the trading action indicates we should stick around. Most of the stocks we put on watch premkt/AH will not end up on the DJIM hold/ hit list, but honestly we can't do anything but trade, so we must trade this opportunity when its presented. This usually helps fund DJIM stocks that we want as longer term holds, call it moonlighting.       Now back to DJIM stocks....

UCTT- this one first because there seemed to be some panic AH. The word 'dump' is something we should not tell the biggest, newest shareholder of UCTT shares. We should not tell the institution (most likely) they bought $1 and change over the closing price on Monday, earnings day. These deals do not happen a buck above the closing price on a particular day, you do not move 1.8 million shares at a premium from one hand to another, you move it lower. It's quite logical as to why, sometimes its just averaging out the deal.  Not being very familiar with the UCTT/ Seiger merger but the other reason for the block could be the business of the M&A. If this doesn't cut it for you, call Oliver Stone tonight or just wait for the morning action to set it, price it straight. Either way, we think the shares at $13 are a treat and not a trick for those buying from the scary people AH. Just like SYX, which we introduced at $13.... UCTT is and was not intended to be IBD material in 48 hours. SYX took sometime and so will UCTT, we think this transaction won't matter down the line if and when this gets truly noticed for it's IBD numbers.

TRT- this is going to the DJIM plot the last few days, except today's early move over $12.50 had us a little stunned. The volume made this impossible to hold. So what happens next is the market catches some air and gives TRT some volume and a push to 13. We still feel its a little early, maybe we are just hoping for a pullback to add. Today's actions tells us it wants to go higher, we're just not sure when the ETA for a test of the highs is.

RIMM, MR remain the stars this week...APH had a war just under $69 late in the day, finished higher so the war looks to be won as it comes to $70. We've dwindled down the BVX again, the power was not there for a further break. GROW came back on the trading block today, joining IAAC...a DJIM reunion of sorts.

Charts updated for fridays trading day at BT Charts

to be in cash right now.    As a matter of fact, this mkt is just downright killing anyone who's sitting on a large pile of cash.     In case you haven't noticed, unless the co. downright disappointed, many of the big caps were rewarded with nice gains even with a mediocre earning report.   But, what do we know and we are just the little guys who don't have a million dollar research arm.      If you read many of the financial websites and lets just use Realmoney.com, for example, you'd even sense a kind of hatred toward the never ending rise of this bull market.    For those so called gurus, they may be right at the end, that this market may indeed be looking exhaustive and this rally is purely emotion driven and without any fundamental basis, and eventually lead to a long decline.    Ok, we've snapped out of that dreaming state about a couple of months ago and have been actively engaged in this market last couple of months.    Things did look to slow down at the beginning of October but the pace is definitely picking up again, as mkt draw towards the small cap earning season.    So how do we play this?    In the small cap land, seeing is always believing and there's really no need to over analyze or guess what the trend may be a month, or weeks from now.    For us, we are traders and we don't trade around theory or hypothetical scenarios, we trade around actions.    Have you noticed the small caps beating estimates, well ours usually don't have estimates or give out guidance which ends up hurting these 'beats', so we are looking forward to some great numbers from unknown caps this quarter.        Ok some updates...

UCTT,  one good habit when it comes to a small caps' earning report is to check its IBD rating soon after.   This has definitely become an automatic thing for us.   We've been watching UCTT, waiting for EPS report to give us a reason to buy in. To sum it up, this one has some decent earnings for a tech co. and it currently has one of the best IBD ratings.    What's so special about this one then?    It's a FRESH IBD play, we dig it and we believe momentum crowd would dig it too.    The only drawback is that it's somewhat heavily owned by the institutions and the pace of rise may be slower than other small caps.   We are excited by the rise in volume and thinking this one has some decent and safe upside potential. Remember its sector as the institutions do!.

BTJ, IBD material and drive perhaps?   We we have two more days to find out and the action definitely supports that thesis today. Anyways...DJIM needs some oil in it's soup to keep driving those gains.  A decline in crude inventories leads to oil/stocks move up like today. This works both sides as we have seen recently. We played the LCC on the down last week, we can play on the up. We're in a good place with BTJ off it's stellar earnings.

IAAC, this one had a big follow through and it almost cleared the $30 mark.    This is one is trading choppy as usual but the bias is definitely toward upside. If you can't stand the ride...don't take it to bed with you, just trade it.

TRT, we said yesterday that the bottom may have been in place,  today mentioned in market chat it was lagging the SOX action sitting low $11's. The action soon after just confirmed our thesis.   We feel that this is a definite buy on weakness untill it breaks $12.50 which is then gonna turn into a chase on strength play.    For all we know, one good day with 200k+ volume can put this baby back on the radar.

MTOX SILC both held up relatively well considering the intraday volatility.

APH made a move in the afternoon and looks to be setting up nicely for new highs. EML...EPS numbers in market chat.

Charts updated at BT's charts- ACOR-APH-AZZ-BTJ-BVX-CETV-CPY-DGIT-DIVX-RIMM-TRT
PLUS NDX, SPX

Many of you have noticed that this name ( UCTT $13.30) has been mentioned in MC couple of days ago.     What we wanted to point out that as of today, IBD has assigned a new rating to it.   98, 97 A-!

For those that have played this IBD over and over, this is probably nothing new and you'd know exactly what to do.   For those that are new, we'd like to point out that a fresh IBD play always attract some serious momentum money.

we are buying aggressively today

UCTT daily

CLICK chart for full view.

Visit Market Chat (navigation column) for more on UCTT#'s.

It's definitely easier said than done.   What we are trying to do here at DJIM is to constantly find plays that we identify as being the easy plays.   Those are the kind of plays which according to our past experience, have the best probability to go up.    Of course, it doesn't necessarily mean that our plays aren't risky.    Take ACOR for example, we noticed the morning upgrade and decided that it has a good chance of going higher if its opening isn't too outrageous.   We got that and it was a good play.    Had we held on till the close, this is back to square one and you can literally write off that upgrade effect because it was in the bag.     The point is, use the opportunity to your advantage and trade according to the trading rules, as oppose to any other sentimental rules.  **CLICK ON HIGHLIGHTED GREEN to enter Chat

[Demi] (Reply) on Extended trading- Pre/AH » Small caps quickies Travelzoo beats by $0.04 (TZOO) 32.40 :Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.28 p ...

RIMM,  this one was noted awhile ago on its earning day and so far it's gotten close to 20%.    This is an exception to what we normally trade but this stock always occupy that special feeling to those who were once trading it on the Toronto stock exchange back in the days.    The break out looks good today.

MR, at last!   We just have one question about this one, "what took it so long?"   In any case, even though the stock is enjoying some nice gains, we still need to trade according to the action and letting some go when action stalls.

BTJ, de ja vu?   The earning reaction looks powerful today and we really don't need to refresh readers what this thing is capable of.

Past BTJ posts    http://djmarkets.squarespace.com/dj-journal-archive/ 

BVX, pennant b/o, thick zone or whatever you want to call it.   The fact is that it closed at the high and higher than the recent high, it's an automatic buy for us again even if this not one of our favorites right now. We have said numerous times what we were looking for since the recent run up, today we got that with volume and a good close.

TRT, we bought a little of this one.  We have a feeling that this one may have seen the low.   This doesn't necessarily mean that it's going right back to old high.   It definitely needs some more work and if the inside selling stops , we may just have a chance. 

EDU, possibly the Motley effect is eroding... we bot little to keep an eye on further development. APH as well off the 9ema. AZZ looking pretty good on the chart.

Off our market chat, a few nice stocks put up by fellow traders..

SILC, this stock is also worth keeping an eye on.   Earning may not be awesome but action suggests it can go higher. MTOX, this is one of those stocks that we aren't initially sure that it can attract momentum or not.  Today it proved that it can and we are in some . ILMN, this is a possible b/o that may get some follow through the next few days.

RIM midday

Yesterday we talked about a power move to/at 114 for RIMM. 

That's a pogo stick you want to jump on when you see the volume kick in.

Yesterday, we used AMIE as an example of not tossing the DJIM stocks away after the initial runs with us. One point of our DJIM lists is that the reader start a list to follow this niche, narrowing down the suspects and recycling the familiar names like we do. Actually received an email this weekend from a reader reminding us of CTCM and a potential set up. It's great some are keeping past DJIM stocks close by.(especially today). Same goes for IAAC which we mentioned in MC just past 3pm and not a second later kaboom as BT likes to draw it. The other good reminder is in SYNL and that is.... dont chase until you see and feel that a stock will be in play. Sure some flipped for a few points but there are others that might be feeling stuck higher tonight. The volume was nothing spectacular to warrant a in play stock for today but we still picked up a few shares into the close as the numbers do look very good. We usually post a follow up when we enter if time permits as in TRT etc.

DIVX a pick up friday had a nice day and put in a NCHigh, CETV as well. LCC, we posted selling it off 51+ as there is some resistance here for the index...will look for another entry in size later. RIMM keeps knocking on 114...  should go through soon with some power if the mkt keeps this up. Some huge blocks showed up this afternoon 113+.

Charts updated at BT charts include ACOR,APH,AZZ,CETV,CPY,DGIT,DIVX,LCC,RIMM,TRT, (NDX)... Also visit Market Chat for other ideas from traders during the day.

Excellent Q from this very thin traded, low float stock (5mln). Anything to do with pipes and chemicals we usually like;)...As usual we don't chase and end up holding the top, watch reaction..volume etc for a possible entry as we always say. .39 vs. 09 EPS for Q (2.4mln vs.525k Net.one time small gain in there it seems...still this look good with eps in the .30's., backlog sweet

Going into last week mostly in cash, we were able to use some of it off our alerts on CETV,APH, LCC. Late friday, we decided to add the often mentioned DIVX on DJIM for a longer term play as it caught some volume....well till the Oct 30th EPS day, maybe. The three additions last week put EDU,EML,BVX off to the side right now. We are not into quantity, but quality plays. CETV becomes DJIM 10th stock to do a 25+% move, the latest push coming after our mention Monday at $69 in MC. APH was a premarket watch Wednesday for a possible entry off earnings, while LCC was a pure idea play on oil falling lower. We don't believe in chasing, being the first ones in on the bell....instead we wait and usually find a pretty good entry later in the morning. APH provided such and ran quickly after pulling back some early, we feel this one might be on DJIM for a while.  LCC, really turned out to be the play we were looking for. By the end of the week most of the airlines literally took off....$45 to 50 is not bad for few days work. We will trade it with the jet stream of news including (EPS 26th).  EDU despite good numbers, never provided a 3rd DJIM opportunity to enter as a Motley Fool article took its wind despite good #'s...funny thing is MF always had a concern for valuation but it never stopped EDU fans before. Thursday's action was overdone but we will keep it on the sidelines.  Don't lose track of past DJIM winners, look at what AMIE did recently(new highs). We've already discussed BVX, DGIT late last week so you know what we are waiting for.  MR, which we sold the little we had into the gap is back on close watch. It seems the spark was a popular newsletter on Chinese stocks providing the rush, according to a fellow trader... usually this fuses out come day 2 as the herd sells to new unknowing blood. We'll see if those chasing the volume break this week are the stronger ones. ACOR is unbelievably starting to look more than just a trade. The stock has held up remarkably well without the usual sell off you see in momo stocks. Other DJIM's including RIMM,CPY,TRT have their charts up.  A few others of some interest were mentioned Friday.

Charts updated at BT charts include ACOR,APH,AZZ,CETV,CPY,DGIT,DIVX,LCC,RIMM.TRT

Well, this week happened to be our least busiest week in the last while.   Doesn't it sound ironic when this week had every big name co.  releasing their earning and Dow broke 12k?   To us, it's just business as usual.    We typically don't get very active during the first couple weeks of earning season as most of the reports are dominated by household names.    But of course, if you happen to run a mutual fund with billions of dollars, this is the crunch time.   For us, we just sit back and look at all this in amusement.    Then again, if you happen to be a multi billion dollar fund manager and are reading our blog, we'd say you definitely need help. lol...Although, we love seeing the million dollar Hedgies coming by;)

For us, we trade because this is the only thing we know how and love.  But in order to have an edge, we have to trade in our own games.    Small caps have been our success and it's been this way for quite sometimes.    Just because the spotlight is on the big caps and indices at this moment, it doesn't mean that small caps have been buried deep in the mud.    All it really takes is a couple of awesome small cap runner that have spectacular earning report and perhaps two to three weeks of hard work, you'd be all set for the rest of the year.    The reason why we don't touch options or other sophisticated strategy here is that we are trying to keep trading to its simplest form, demand and supply.    We think we have a very good understanding of the psychology behind trading of small caps.   There's simply no hiding of emotions when it comes to small caps.     Believe it or not, when it comes to small caps, you can experience surprise, excitement, enjoyment, greediness, top of the world feeling, fear, denial, numb, anger.. all kinds of emotional feeling  within a span of just two weeks.    We love to trade around that kind of emotional environment so we can't wait till the majority of the small caps to start reporting in the coming weeks. (TRT was just early in being late).

Meantime, in order to keep ourself busy other than watching this ridiculous CNBC stuff, here's some stocks of interest.....

DIVX, we think this one is catching its GOOG connection one way or the other.     The chart looks like it's setting up for another possible run up.   We added some and will look for direction next week to trade accordingly.

MR, could this b/o be it?   The volume suggests it's the real deal but how many times we've been faked out by it before? lol    Of course, this one is gonna get our attention in the coming week.

SYNA, this one came to our attention last night when it guided up nicely.   Trading action is suggesting higher price to come.

DGIT, this one defiinely doesn't have the lust it had when we first initially found it, but it's nonetheless worth keeping your eyes on.

ACOR ITMN ILMN, when in doubt, go medical.   These three are also high on our trading list as they are definitely more immune to the sensitive side of the economic data.

some new stocks of interest this week included APH, ALB, RBN and most of the airline stocks....

cheers,