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..wake up Nasdaq...
We are not going to overkill the market in this late stage. Instead of reacting to every economic number and every fed blurb that is toying with investors, we are simply sticking to our weekend words. We are looking for the easy play, the easy money without being nicked. The short term bet, trade is on and speculation/momentum is what we are after. The market made a strong reversal yet the Nasdaq still finished red on the Fed speak. We're glad to see the strong rebounds in a few DJIM names, but we are not going out and buying the dips aggressively. Instead, we will wait and see if many of these get can get back to recent highs and then decide. At the moment we are into plays like the ESCL. How long you stay with one of these is not the question, it is how much profit you can get from them. We traded ESCL a few months back close to this price and thought that 'crazy' had the same potential today.....its' simply in its genes!. Last time this craziness extended into day 2, despite a nice run from alert time at $7 and a few pennies to over $9, we've kept some in case the loopy money has further to go.
The other buy was FFHL, an IPO from China with a very nice float of just over 3mln. Considering this is becoming retail traders week heading into the holiday, we were anticipating some of their memories of EFUT to kick in...ours did!. We can't make predictions and the EFUT's come around once a blue moon, but if this FFHL is a fraction of EFUT ...it would be the easy money we are after now. We watched it trade with a few other IPO's today and had no problem giving out a alert in the low 10's. Usually an IPO has some turning over to do before it makes a move, we were hoping it skips this step and gets momo early. Judging by the AH trading in the mid 11's, a rarity for a IPO...this might be getting some attention tomorrow. Hopefully this will have a longer shelve life than ESCL.
There was some comical action today...unfortunately it wasn't for those that had their stops knocked out. The offering was quite small even for a JST share count and the money was going to a good cause...expansion. The wash job to $19+ was a joke. Many of DJIM readers probably sold off yesterday and missed the sweet dip opportunity..we did for the most part.
The dip buying could be quite nice as seen in POWL AXR especially, but we are concentrating on those still playing around highs if adding shares.............OPTM was one today as it closed with a NCH.
Short term bets into '07..
No M&A activity is going stop the distribution, profit taking we touched on last night on the NASD. Add on head banging resistance and you get a 42 point swing from hi to lows of the day. Some of this showed up in DJIM stocks and a lot of it didn't. You could say a few deserved some profit taking. AXR and GROW shot to $137+ and almost $70 respectively, both about 5+% above Friday's already somewhat extended close. You could throw JST into the mix. Basically the 3 biggest runners exhausted themselves as the NASD turned late morning. Excluding the oil related issues, AXR/JST sustained the most pain. There was little pain elsewhere among DJIM names as most finished green..barely ...but green is green!. The great thing about that is if you scare easily, today provided you with an opportunity to sell your stock near a top while the rest of the market struggled ..
ATNI ZOLL OPTM and almost all the NYSE stocks closely followed at DJIM...DLB MBT VIP closed green.
The best of the day were ABM, which kissed $24 and finished up 2.5% with a NCH. The other is ROS which tacked on another $1+ and a new NCH. These two definitely have some new found interest out there, we're not the only ones liking how these are trading.
Todays action started with a decline in the small caps but eventually the large caps took over. If this round of selling continues, never forget your stock could be next. In small cap land, they sometimes fall like dominos. The best performers take it hard and those are most likely here at DJIM. Luckily, this market has had the dip buyers at every turn to support any tumble. It shouldn't be any different into the end of '06 if this was to occur. We are just leaving it to short term bets now, not too many sleep overs for us.
DJIM hold/ hit list #18
In last weeks #17, we said we're not finished yet with this market in 2006. Last week showed our resolve to keep finding the 'trade' despite an already fulfilling year. The market just keeps feeding us DJIM type trading opportunities and we don't want to stop feeding it. The exodus of players beginning this week for the holidays favors our type of play going forward as the volume creeps lower. The next few weeks is 'easy money' time, we are only looking to add to the gains of '06...not diminish them with unnecessary risk. This is not the time to look for the 'hard money' play that could tick a few percentages off your return. This is not the time to think...hmm..this one could be a winner down the road and take a stake in it, this is the time to play the momentum when you see it. What are we talking about?. Well, we gave it out all week!. If you look at Fridays action, if you look at the NASD chart you can see the divergence in the money flow..what you are seeing is profit taking year end. Where do we not see this?. Clearly by Fridays action, it was in DJIM stocks. While the distribution goes on elsewhere, DJIM stocks are getting our cash and many other dollars that are giving these stocks momentum.. bringing in the herd. This is what we will continue to seek out...the positive money flow and/or where it might go. These types of plays include the possibility of runners like GROW, JST given Thursday afternoon and then the subsequent momo the next day.
Although earnings season is practically over there are a few names coming out with EPS, maybe we will get a couple more sweet ones before the year is out. Last week we alerted to two we liked, IPSU and ABM and with a little DJIM patience we gave a follow up alert on each minutes before the big moves. The other grand move had to be the word on POWL at $28 and then the run..okay walk to just under $34, not so bad was the pick up of OPTM at $23. Besides JST, AXR also had a 20% week. This one was a recent alert at $98 and continues to thrill closing at 129. Hopefully, some finally see the promise in buying a stock at $99 and not only $9.90 after the RIMM ride from $99 to $140 and now AXR's 30% in 10 trading days.
We will continue to be selective in our choices going forward and yes... if we get more quick 5-10%-20% at this point on individual plays, we will take the profits as so should you. For more current plays of interest ROS, ATNI etc., just scroll down the Journal.
No complaints with NCH's...
...the NCH's, new closing high list is long today for DJIM closely followed stocks...AXR ALY BTJ GROW JST REXI ROS ZOLL..intraday highs for POWL,FTEK
If you had to find some faults of today's action, you can say that FTEK reversed hard intraday and IPSU or POWL did not follow through the way it did the day before. Have those three plays met our trading objective? Hell yeah! It's apparent that up until now, we can conclude with everyone that the key for each and every one of our plays is to find them early and get in early or wait for the next leg up. When it comes to selling to take profits or cut losses, unfortunately everyone has their own threshold and emotional tolerance and discipline. We like to take profit a lot and trade along the trend. When a stock stalls or reverses, there'd be lots of sell signals and plenty of time for us to act, and such is the advantage of sitting in front of the screens all day. Only you know when you've had your fill and its time to move on. Ok, here are some stocks that didn't disappoint...
ATNI, volume perked up considerably today and half of it is due to a block trade. Nonetheless, we like its action and its strong move above 9 ema may suggest that it's ready to challenge its old high. We got back in some.
ABM, what a surprise!...well, not really as its a blast when institutions (80% in ABM) want to play your side and buy as today. This one was alerted yesterday due to their earning but today's action felt as if the earning came out today. This one had strong action throughout the day and we like this one and thinking this one may no longer be a sleeper mover. Again..this is a lesson in not chasing the open, if you are not experienced enough to make a call, don't do it. Let the market tell you when and if its worth a ride. patience paid of nicely with IPSU, ABM
OPTM, we alerted this one earlier today and even though it did not close at the high, the late push was encouraging to see. Say what you want, this one is also an attention grabber today.
GROW/JST/ALXA, why do we group these three together? Because really, those three only trade off momentum, nothing more. Since momentum trading is what we do the best, of course we had to alert them late afternoon to all just in case they close well. And they all closed well.
The bottom line is, if you get into some of these plays early enough and apply a proper selling strategy, a hard reversal intraday should not hurt the play that much. Even if you did get caught and took some losses, there's really no need to get hung about it and just accept it as part of the game and move on. There's always plenty of good action waiting for you here, and that's also the reason why we rarely bring back our past plays (TRT) to our watchlist, unless they come back and challenge the high again or have some PR to kick it up. Too many of you fall in love with a stock and miss opportunities day after day because your money is tied up. We can see by how many clicks the TRT chart gets compared to a flying AXR. Move on people, TRT was here at $8 and then 12+ , AXR is up 25% since alerted here 8 trading days ago, what has TRT done the last 8?
A little bit of everything...
Of course, if you simply stare at the index and listen to CNBC today, you'd find it no more than a torturing experience. The market seems to be stuck, as suggested by the index action and as well as the commentators would have you believe. But if you look closely, especially the list off the DJIM stocks, you'd find plenty of action here and there.
The key here for us, is to play those that are attacking the new 52 week high off the DJIM watch list. When a stock fails to advance or stalls at 52 week high, we reduce and lock in profit. Having a list of strong stocks and constantly updating by adding new plays and deleting old ones ensure that you are always playing with the best stocks with potentially the best setup. Here are some highlights..
Russian stocks, GLDN and ROS continued their march upwards and left their stalled comrades MBT VIP behind. Eventually these cracked the 9ema recently. We are focusing more on the first two while keeping an eye on the rest.
Sugarcone, IPSU had a very nice follow through and in fact it was not late buying earlier today.
Surround sound, Cramer surely discovered DLB at $30 and it's a definite bonus which is already 20% gainer for us. Briefingcom has been all over it as well.
We also like the follow through on POWL and a nice setup on FTEK. Two of DJIM's fav. oil co. BTJ/ALY have made new closing highs as well. This market has become much more selective and it's understandable that many traders simply just want to take it easy for the rest of the year given the long stretch of rally we've had. The best course of action for us is to let market show us what's working and we'll go from there.
POWL....bam...boom
..did you think we were going to get the CRASH...SPLAT too?. Come on, you did!...Well, if you didn't, we did with the NASD down 20 and the FOMC a few hours away. Our belief has been the closer we get to the holidays, the farther we are from a correction. We just don't see Bernanke and his Posse stealing this Christmas after giving us such a ride. It just wouldn't be fair, would it?. The problem early was NUE and the NUEsami it could cause that rattled the market...the ripple effect, the wave hitting other steels..metals..titaniums...oh no maybe all the way to China and our dear DJIM China stocks!. Oh yeah BBY didn't help the cause. The 2:15 FOMC was almost a pause, nothing too actionable as expected yet it gave the market the little bump it cried for. The NASD spread was 25pts from open to lows, finishing down 11 was just fine.
We liked IPSU's numbers and expect a few follow ups from the analysts they surprised. We were looking for a breakout from days tight range after the FOMC showed all was okay for todays market, but never got it. Sometimes, stocks need a little time to give it another leg up...recently we wrote on DJIM about POWL and wanting to give it a few days to settle...well, today we alerted to that note and the rest is history from $28 to a $30 close. Sometimes it takes a good stock a few hours to move again, sometimes a few days to be discovered again...sometimes a few weeks.. REXI which hasn't done much since our 1st day run off earnings, maybe will turn now.
If you've been kicking back with some DJIM Russian telcos, you enjoyed the volatile GLDN hitting a NCH with another move. The chart, the volume are all there. If you're in the crawler, ROS..you got a new high $40's as it announced a fast fiber deal with KDDI from Japan-Russia.
Really nothing too exciting today, mostly a bunch of stocks, including DJIM's hitting off new highs early on. This could be a short term top that just provided a higher exit or it could just be a small turn before catching more momentum. The market will let us know soon enough.... EDU smacked 37.96, DLB 31+, MR 27.20, ZOLL 56+ Is this it?. We don't think so and will keep to recycling the best DJIM names and sandwich new plays around the core. A stock in a uptrend, including the previous days action coming to a new high... might continue a downtrend if it breaks that previous days lows...something to watch and help make exit decisions.
All the familiar ones...
This has been the theme throughout the the day, and throughout the month, so far. Stocks that are going up today are those that have been trading near the 52week high during the last little while. It definitely pays to have a watchlist full of strong stocks. In our case, it's the DJIM list. Here are some highlights..
ZOLL, this looks like a clear breakout today with respectable volume. We added a little and feeling the move up is far from over.
MR, we are simply too tired to mention this one every other day. This is a good stock, period.
EDU/HMIN, chinese stocks are definitely catching some fire today. Both had a new closing high and that always spells potential momentum.
AXR, yes it's volatile and it can drop a few bucks intraday, but it can also be rewarding and trade up 15 bucks. The key to trade a stock like this is to recognize the trend. The trend is up and then it doesn't take a genius to know what to do, the rest is up to your experience and instinct.
There are quite a few others that made new highs and we are trading some of these moves. Interesting movers include HRT LXU FRD GRRF CAAS....
ALY, BTJ, we discussed their failure to avoid the trend Friday, well today it couldn't it fight it and $61 oil any longer, we reduced our exposure for the time being. $63+ is again showing its resistance.
DJIM hold/hit list #17
No denying last week DJIM concentration of stocks outperformed the indecies once again. By mid-week the major indecies ran into some resistance from the rally that began the previous Friday, this is clearly seen in yesterdays charts on DJIM Journal. You can also see the market rise early last week was met with some profit taking on the Nasdaq as the money flow diverged. What also diverged was the action of the DJIM stocks as many closed with NCH(new closing highs), some were mild but still NCH's by fridays close while the market did little to add on gains late. These include ALY, BTJ, DLB, JST, HMIN, ZOLL, EDU and a nice tick off the 9ema on MR. Last weekends DJIM #16 concentrated on the 3 segments we have been riding the uptrend with...China/Asian stocks, Russian telcos and the baby oils and of course the always ready to go, GROW.
Interestingly, the baby oils services continued to roll on Friday after the oil sector reversed around noon and oil went from the mid 63's to low 62's, but did not take ALY, BTJ with it. ALY tacked on about 15% and BTJ another 6% on the week.
Besides GROW's seemingly fast and climatic rise from 50 to $60's, it managed to create the usual buying opp on the dip as witnessed Friday. We have stated, GROW is in trader territory more than ever and you need to be on constant watch at these prices or at least have buy in dip points in place for another possible trade and push up. The Asian stocks continued their march with MR, EDU, HMIN up 8% on the week, we cannot forget the cheaper JST which provided a 20% trip with a few bumps in between. The other group we have built around is the Russian telcos which we jumped all over at MBT's earnings. VIP started the week at $76 and climbed to high $81's and now has been basing with MBT in the backseat. GLDN tacked on about 3 points and ROS continued its steady crawl. As always, we look for new opportunities to sandwich in between the heavily followedDJIM stocks in good and bad market days.
Also this week, we again introduced AXR off earnings and a quick trip from 98-107, BIDU is another one we are trading right now. Unfortunately, many still think a $100+ stock is not capable of producing nice quick returns and prefer to buy the speculative MAMA's that wear army boots.
For many all the action in the 3 segments might have been irrelevant if they caught the VNDA moon shot. After mentions December 1st and 4th in DJIM alerts, we and many of you early risers caught the morning alert at $21 -22. If not maybe some of you were accumulating some with us in the $15's. This launch was enough for many to call it a week, some a month if you are confident in DJIM words that this was capable of catching the MOMO and jumped at the opp to load up pre market. We enter week #17 with the same cast, holding many, ready to hit on and add to others..(eg. russan basing telcos like VIP, MBT) as many DJIM's finished the week at or near NCH's, which could be a passport to further gains if the market does not a pull one over eyes early on.
The only recent DJIM names we are ignoring for the most part is the tech names which have shown distribution with the rest of the Nasdaq..RVBD, DIVX.
If the Grinch takes a peek and starts up, we will gladly sell some of these top performing DJIM names and take the profits to buy new and bigger toys on the market before the year is up!. We're not finished yet! We hope after 16 weeks here, many of our new readers are seeing the joy and potential of trading stocks with a earnings base under them...90% of the stocks we have put up on DJIM that have produced great returns are just that...quality, growth producing companies. If you are longer term investor, doing some DD on the stocks discussed here and buying months ago could have made your year without calling your FA or pressing the sell button ONCE yourself......BTJ,ALY,MR,EDU, AMIE, TRT, RIMM and so on. There's a little of everything here to suit a variety of investing needs.
A long DJIM trading day!......VNDA>>DLB
We prefer to remind ourselves tonight why we DON'T play the biotech/pharma game instead of taking out the poms-poms for DJIM. Of course the gains can be tremendous as we saw by the first alert trades in VNDA..$21 to $22, that's about 35-40% from yesterdays close. But... what if we play this game of Russian roulette and we wake to a drop of the same size because of poor results and then we go lower and lower before the bell. One thing we recognized recently and mentioned last week is VNDA has the capabilities of getting MOMO as seen in November. We didn't expect a release, just a breakout from this tight range as the stock was acting funky lately, yesterdays close showed some hidden promise...This (momo) was clear and center in our minds as the stock gapped to $21, 35-40% was nothing for this stock, we knew it was capable of doing much more and the first thing we did was probably add 10X the size we already held. The gains off those morning trades made the pick ups at $15+ a backdrop as the stock traded $28+ and another 35% off the first trades this premarket. The point is simple, we have never seen the risk in playing these worthwhile and tying up cash...waiting and waiting for some trial news. At the end it comes down to what you do after the 'news', not before!. We doubt this will turn into anything close to the ACOR we played here, but there will probably be a leg here or there to jump on as this stock gets discovered. Right now, it might become more of a Pharma acquisition play. Many big Pharma are losing sleep and going a little schizo these days, VNDA could be their cure.
While the DJIM China stocks rest, their comrades the Russian telcos seem to be acting just fine. MBT, VIP, ROS and led by GLDN showed strength in a lacklustre market. GLDN, the volatile of the bunch continued yesterdays bolt to new highs, volume has been excellent the last two days. ROS is the crawler in the family, we alerted under $38 and today finished 39.69. Nice chart if you have a second to spare. MBT and VIP seem like they don't want to consolidate for too long and instead make a run for the recent highs. As market deteriorated after 2pm, these seemed to hold and even pick it up throughout the day. We'll see tomorrow.
So our DJIM day started at 7:30am with VNDA and was still ticking at 6:00pm with a Cramer tick on DLB with a $30+..Guess the man got the alerts this week;). We would have preferred to let this play out on DJIM time but we won't be afraid to take some early profits if its called for tomorrow. Stay on your toes tomorrow for the market, don't give up what you've earned.
Vanda Pharmaceutical, VNDA $22 premkt
December 1st in DJIM alerts at $15
Vanda Pharma announces it confirms Iloperidone efficacy with positive Phase III clinical trial results in Schizophrenia (VNDA) 15.50 :Co announced positive top-line results from the co's Phase III clinical trial evaluating iloperidone, an atypical antipsychotic, in patients with schizophrenia. Iloperidone demonstrated statistically significant improvement compared to placebo on the Positive and Negative Symptom Scale, the trial's primary endpoint. Additionally, iloperidone achieved significant efficacy on the positive and negative symptom subscales of PANSS. The safety profile was consistent with what has been observed in previous iloperidone Phase III trials. "We are extremely pleased to have achieved this outcome with iloperidone. The success of this trial moves us one step closer to our NDA filing, expected in late 2007, and one step closer to making iloperidone available to patients and providers dealing with schizophrenia."
Boring day...
It felt like a pretty boring day to us...a calm before a storm? Major indices didn't do much of anything and most of our DJIM stocks pulled a sleepy one as well. We can't put too much thought into today's action, it isn't a bad thing to have everyone's enthusiasm curbed a little. However, there are a couple of stocks worth noting and we'll just get right to it.
AXR/BIDU, this pair is also getting some momentum carried over from yesterday. Again, we liked the action today and added a little to our existing position.
GROW, one of the few games in town today. Although we feel that the "easy" money has been made, it doesn't necessarily mean that "fast" money can't be made from this one. This is, however, one of those stocks that only a full time trader with experienced trading background in this sort of play would attempt to play actively here in $50's-60's.
BTJ/ALY, this pair all closed near their day high and we are liking it for some further momentum. The key, again, is to keep an eye on the overall oil services sector.
POWL, we are putting this one on our radar b/c we really like its earning reaction and it sort of reminded us of ATNI, in a way. It's thin but it can be rewarding. A few small cap crawlers have given up their early gains following a earnings report rather quickly lately..EXLS, REXI. We decided to let this one cool off and see how it performs day 2 and 3. Btw..maybe not a bad time to start looking at ATNI again around the 9ema.
Many DJIM stocks have held up very well considering the choppiness of this market, we are looking forward to tomorrow's action.
DJIM Market today...
Maybe it's not a good thing, but days like this we are completely oblivious to the market shenanigans. It seems there is only one market today and that's a DJIM market. Supposedly...the market was resting today, probably got a little fat since Fridays run began. This didn't stop many of the DJIM stocks, they just kept on rolling along...
GROW, lets not greedy folks!!..that's a 17% trip off the latest alert to the $60 top...Yes, we said top...as in a possible short term top. So, not to be greedy we were unwinding our position. We've left enough to call ourselves happy GROW investors and we won't be far away to load up again.
JST, this one said.. hey I have a passport too and joined the Asian stock run-up. This was simply a case of the chart catching up to the rest of the action in DJIM land. If you stared long enough at BT's JST chart, you probably had the idea of a potential big break coming soon.
EDU and HMIN...these two looked like they had a bet as to who was going to get to highs first. These two have added on about 10% each since Friday, today EDU ended with a NCH.
We have been pulling some profits off as any good trader/investor should as they go along...especially if its a quick 10-15% here and there in just a few days...But..instead of sitting on it too long, we've been putting it back to work. Opportunities are presenting themselves every day..sometimes its earnings, sometimes its the look of a potential set up. Today, we added a small starter in a couple of familiar names in AXR and DLB (comments in DJIM alerts). Other strong stocks of interest today were also familiar names from around here..ALY FTEK BIDU IAAC.
So all is well???
Maybe! But one thing is for sure, it's definitely easier for us to start a topic today, as would for anybody who follows/trades this market. So, we are not going to start with the obvious. What we are going to do is to point out the things most people aren't looking at, and if you already knew by reading DJIM, then you probably wouldn't need to read further but if you're watching CNBC or chasing headlines at Briefingcom ...this is new to you.
It isn't exactly hard to make money today. It's definitely a little bit more of a challenge to make the most out of the day's action, you simply are better off being in the right place, the DJIM hit'hold list is a perfect start if todays exploits are any indication. What we noticed today is a carry over of our strong names from last week. Particularly, the ones that really stood out in the crowd from last week were really off to a great start today. There's definitely a theme going on, Chinese + Russian! Throughout last week, some of the stocks from those two geographic regions held up really well, and during the last couple of days, capped with today's action, just simply took a lot of our breath away. Here are some highlights....
GROW, ok, this one to us, probably needs a passport of its own. Believe it or not, this one is shaping to be one of the best stocks this year. How did we really miss this one at the 9 buck days? We were trading back then but never had any vision to see this one going to this level, and possibly higher still. Of course, we didn't make the most out of it, but we sure made a big chunk out of it since we caught the break in the $24's on DJIM as should everyone who has read DJIM from September 1st. With an all time close today, it's really out of anyone's hands to know how high it will go from this point on. If you missed DJIM Alerts today, you missed the majority of the move.
MR, steady as she goes. It just seems it's getting a lot of positive things going for it. And, it also seems fair that we discovered it, loved it, and were pounding the table for it since 10 points ago. This one sure doesn't have the kind of volatility of GROW or some of the others, but believe us, we have no problem trading 1000's lots at a time with this one either. It's definitely been a sweet ride so far. Despite its hefty percentage gain, we still like this one as one of our favourites.
MBT, VIP..all we can say is SPACEBA!!...Is there anything we missed since introducing this idea premarket last Wednesday?. probably not, but we can add that the early court action in VIP from 77 to 83+ today was spectacular..it was purely Sharapova!...okay back to trading, we keep seeing this over and over and that is a fear of buying these expensive stocks and instead looking for the $1 out of RNIN type, a under $10 stock. We pointed this out on DJIM when we bought RIMM at $99.00, we said look at it like its a $9.99 special...cause recently that special was worth almost $15.00 or $150!. Simply...some miss some great runs in expensive stocks and its a shame!..VIP has gone from 71 to almost 84 in 4 days...almost 20%, in cheapie terms from $7.10 to 8.30+... Finally, yes like all flyers these will have to slow down and consolidate some, sooner or later.
ZOLL, was today any surprise?, it was just a matter time and most of DJIM readers knew this from our $46 to $54 day run. Every stock needs to consolidate at one time or another, ZOLL did a great job holding $50 and was never really far from its highs for the past few weeks. Friday was a second touch of the 9ema as we had noted under the ZOLL chart yesterday, if today proved to be a good market day... the follow through should be greater than after the 1st touch. Boom!!..if you blinked you might have missed the morning action, don't forget the float..the 46-54 day should have told you this ZOLLami can get hot and spicy really fast!
We pointed out the action early friday, EDU and HMIN were mentioned along with MR. Part of DJIM trading methodology's is recycling stocks we know are capable of more moves, you could search and search and won't find anything better than what EDU introduced here at $20 has produced.. This one has legs!...It's on its 4th pair at DJIM, all the moves have been quite substantial and again EDU is not far off its highs. Going with the same idea as Friday, we threw out HMIN again on DJIM alerts at $31 for those that might have forgetten the idea...1,2...and HMIN was number 3 as it hit 32.70's. This one is still in the shadows, but we think the volatility, its trading ways might bring it more attention in the near future.
Jon/Demi
DJIM hold/hit list #16.....Greed vs. Fear
From the action we had last week, we think you can pretty much wrap the extreme side of those two emotions into five days of trading. We started the week with -54 on Naz and ended the week with -18. It could've been worse, we have to admit. With the choppiness we'd seen last few days, could this mean the top is near? It's definitely possible, and more likely so than the action lets say two or three weeks ago. What it meant for us is to raise our caution up significantly. How we approach this kind of choppiness is simply by reducing our sizes in each play and reduce the number of plays accordingly. Unless we are confident that we can get something out of a play, chances are, we are going to be passing on a lot of plays. At this point in our trading career, there's really no point to trade competitively in a tough market. What we wanted to do is to trade competitively only in an easy market, and making easy plays... this includes finding new plays sandwiched between bad days such as the Russian telcos feeding on earnings... VIP and MBT. These definitely have more institutional action and should have less volatility going forward than the typical DJIM stock.
On Friday, there were only a couple of plays that stood out...one we mentioned in DJIM alerts and that was a few China stocks working again in a bad early market....MR, EDU......later even EFUT showed some life, probably more short covering than anything else going into the weekend and a tick off the 9-14ema levels.
MR, we had a feeling that people would try every Friday thinking that it'd made it to IBD100. This week, MR did make it to IBD100 at #9. This definitely brings a whole new perspective to the stock in our opinion. It definitely had the goods to climb even higher in IBD ranking. There was even some chatter of how great Mindray is by the NYSE in regards to the IPO market. Well..we and our readers already knew this;)...Sep26."also keep an eye on MR, an IPO today which is based in China and sells medical device. It looks pretty sexy.". This chatter and IBD should bring a few new eyes on MR and a nice open.
BTJ, maybe the whole oil service sector fared well on Friday, but this one definitely stood out from the rest. It hit a new alltime high on Friday and that's definitely encouraging to see given the index action. Its DJIM sister ALY made a nice reversal later in the day.
Despite the -50 or so Nasdaq week, we found a few trends with a green probability. We will continue to be selective and seek out new trading opportunities, plus have an eye to recycle some DJIM plays when its time.
What's happening out there...
is exactly what we have been fearing the last couple of days. The Naz is knocking toward the low it hit a couple of days ago. It's happening on a Friday and we are very uneasy over the action out there. If the index closes at or near the low today, we feel that Mondy will not be pretty and that may set the tone for the rest of the week. We are obviously moving toward the cash mode and definitely don't want to be bogged down this weekend on any concerns for next week.
be careful out there....
